The bigness bias
50 ideas you really need to know psychology, Adrian Furnham
The famous ‘bigness bias’ which lead to statistical errors. People pay more attention to big numbers than they do to small numbers. The following example shows that Mrs. Clinton won top voting region 55, third region 29 and several other big numbers. Mr Trump won the biggest region was 38 and 29, who also won several small regions 1,3,4,5,6,7,8,9. We have all known result that Mr. Trump 290 won the 45th U.S president over Mrs. Clinton 232.
Meanwhile, number numbness can often best be seen in the way people think about and use their own money Gary Belsky and a Thomas Gilovich – who wrote a book in 1999 about behavioral economics in title why smart people make big money mistakes suggested some useful tips to overcome pool statistical reasoning:
- Don’t be impressed by short term success: look always at the long-term trends.
- Play averages because chance plays a great role in investment and it’s easy to be seduced by short-term chance factors.
- Know when time is on your side start early, don’t discount the power of inflation.
- Beware of and no base rate.
- Always read the fine print because what the large print giveth the small print taketh away. (Furuham, 2012)